Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

331
FXUS65 KBYZ 191441
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
841 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms each day this weekend. Today, scattered strong to
  severe thunderstorms are possible near the Montana-Dakotas
  border. Main threats are large hail, strong winds, and heavy
  rain.

- Warm temperatures return this weekend (upper 80s to mid 90s).

- Early next week continues to look cooler (70s and 80s) with
  continued daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
The tail of a weak shortwave about to exit northeast MT is
producing a few showers near Miles City and Baker early this
morning. This activity should exit over the next 2-3 hours.
Looking upstream, we are seeing height falls in response to
troffing dropping from BC to the northern Rockies. A shortwave
will provide ascent for afternoon and evening t-storms. Storms in
our far east, along and east of a surface trof where moisture and
instability will be much greater than elsewhere, have the
potential to be severe from roughly 4-8pm. SPC`s day1 outlook
continues to highlight an area east of Miles City and Broadus for
a slight risk of severe storms, with large hail and strong winds
possible w/ supercells. High pwats will yield heavy rain, of
course, and cannot rule out a tornado near the Dakotas border (an
axis of low LCLs and enhanced low level helicity). The window for
severe t-storms will be brief as activity will move into the
Dakotas early this evening.

Forecast is in good shape. Have made some pop/wx adjustments based
on current activity, and increased SE winds a bit in our east.

JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...

A warm day is on tap today as temperatures warm into the 80s to
mid 90s across the lower elevations. By late this afternoon into
this evening, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the region. With this, there looks to be
generally two areas of convection to watch. The area of most
concern is over eastern Montana between 3 and 9 PM MDT where
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms (discrete in nature) are
possible. The main threats with this activity today are large hail
and strong winds. Secondary threats are heavy rain and possibly a
weak tornado or two (2 percent chance). At this time, some
uncertainty remains on where these storms will initiate off a
subtle dryline / low-level convergence zone, but high resolution
models are consistent on storm initiation occurring in eastern
Montana late this afternoon. If you have outdoor or travel plans
in eastern Montana today, make sure to stay weather aware. The
other area to watch for shower and thunderstorm development is
south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming. By late this
afternoon, convection is expected to initiate over the higher
terrain before moving over the plains through the evening hours.
With less instability and shear to work with, any thunderstorm
that develops in this area today should remain sub-severe. By late
this evening into tonight, the thunderstorm threat will come to
an end and dry conditions will prevail for most.

Sunday will be another warm day as temperatures warm into the 80s
to mid 90s once again. With south-westerly flow aloft, another
round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is
expected during the afternoon and evening. With minimal
instability in place, no strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected on Sunday at this time. With that said, gusty winds,
small hail, and heavy rain are still possible under any
thunderstorm that develops.

Look for low temperatures tonight and Saturday night to be in the
50s to lower 60s across the lower elevations. Arends

Monday through Friday...

Active weather is expected to continue for the first half of next
week, with a daily chance for t-storms for most locations.

Ensembles and cluster analysis suggest above normal confidence for
a stubborn trough to be in place from the northern Rockies across
the Pacific NW Monday through Wednesday. This pattern typically
results in a series of weak short waves in the southwest flow
tracking across or near our CWA providing a potential trigger for
scattered convection each day. The pattern will also favor an
increase in PWATs across our eastern plains (1.0-1.20 inches).
Effective shear may not be as strong as it has been much of this
season, but there will be a potential for severe storms and heavy
rain with some storms, something to keep in mind each day for
those with outdoor plans. Eventually, the trough splits leaving
an orphan trough off the Calif coast while northern branch becomes
some energy tracking across the Rockies and southern Canada at
midweek. This should all result in progressively cooler temps.
Afternoon highs will be mainly in the 80s during this time.

While ensembles indicate a wider spread of possibilities and
uncertainty toward the end of the week, Thursday through Friday
are looking warmer with a drying trend. Highs should climb back
into the lower to mid 90s. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

A lingering area of MVFR stratus near KBHK & K97M will erode by
late morning. Expect isolated morning showers and weak t-storms
near KMLS/KBHK as well, until ~17z. In the mid afternoon and early
evening, look for isolated showers & t-storms west of Rosebud
County and scattered t-storms to the east. Eastern storms have the
potential to produce large hail, strong winds, heavy rain and
brief reductions to IFR (most likely to impact KBHK & K97M). Late
tonight, cannot rule out patchy fog and low clouds near the
Dakotas border once again...though this is uncertain at this time
(30% chance). Outside of convection and localized eastern
fog/stratus, VFR will prevail regionwide over the next 24 hours.
Slant range visibility will be reduced at times due to wildfire
smoke from the west. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 061/090 061/086 061/083 059/084 061/091 061/092
    2/T 22/T    12/T    42/T    52/T    11/U    11/U
LVM 089 051/088 052/084 051/083 051/086 052/089 054/091
    2/T 12/T    13/T    33/T    32/T    11/U    11/U
HDN 094 059/090 060/087 060/084 058/085 059/091 058/093
    2/T 22/T    22/T    42/T    52/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/088 063/087 061/083 059/083 061/092 063/094
    4/T 32/T    31/B    52/T    52/W    21/U    11/U
4BQ 090 062/088 063/087 063/084 062/083 062/089 064/091
    3/T 21/U    21/B    41/B    62/T    31/U    21/U
BHK 080 057/083 060/085 059/082 056/081 056/087 058/088
    5/T 52/T    31/B    52/T    52/W    21/U    21/B
SHR 092 054/091 056/087 056/085 055/082 055/089 056/089
    2/T 21/U    11/B    22/T    43/T    22/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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